{"id":51168,"date":"2022-03-31T20:16:21","date_gmt":"2022-03-31T20:16:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/?p=51168"},"modified":"2023-11-09T20:37:33","modified_gmt":"2023-11-09T20:37:33","slug":"%d8%b1%d8%b3%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a9-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%83%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b5-62","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/?p=51168","title":{"rendered":"\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0628\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0627\u062f\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0634 Bayesian Estimation For CIR Process With Application To Finance \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u064a\u0632\u064a \u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 CIR \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u0648\u064a\u0644"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u0646\u064f\u0648\u0642\u0634\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062d\u0635\u0627\u0621 \u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0633\u0648\u0645\u0629<br>\u0628 (\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u064a\u0632\u064a \u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 CIR \u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u0648\u064a\u0644)<br>\u0644\u0644\u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0629 \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0645 \u0623\u0628\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u064a\u0644 \u0639\u0643\u0644\u0629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u062a\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u064a\u0632 \u0644\u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c Cox Ingersoll Ross \u0648\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c Free Cox Ingersoll Ross \u0625\u0630 \u064a\u0639\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0642\u062f\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062d\u062f \u0645\u0627 \u0644\u0623\u0646\u0647 \u064a\u062d\u062a\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0630\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0639\u064a \u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0647 \u0648\u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0623\u062e\u0630 \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0627 \u0633\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u062a\u0636\u0645\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0623\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0629 \u0641\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u062a\u0633\u0628\u0642\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0645\u0647\u064a\u062f \u0648\u062a\u062a\u0644\u0648\u0647\u0627 \u062e\u0627\u062a\u0645\u0629 \u0648\u0642\u0627\u0626\u0645\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u0630\u062c \u0645\u0635\u0637\u0644\u062d \u0647\u064a\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0639\u062f \u0623\u0635\u0639\u0628 \u062c\u0632\u0621 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b\u0629 \u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u062a\u0639\u0642\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0648\u0623\u0635\u0628\u062d\u062a \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 Cox Ingersoll Ross \u0645\u0647\u0645\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0637\u0627\u0642 \u0648\u0627\u0633\u0639 , \u0627\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0635\u064a\u063a\u0629 \u0631\u064a\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0636\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0641\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0623\u062d\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0647\u0648 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0637\u0649 \u062d\u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0639\u0631\u0641 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0642\u062f\u0645\u0647 John Carrington Cox, Jonathan Edwards Ingersoll and Stephen Alan Ross \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 1985.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u062a\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0631 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0634\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0646\u0627\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0635\u0641 \u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0635\u0637\u0644\u062d \u0647\u064a\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u062d\u062f\u062f \u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0637\u0648\u0631 \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631. \u0641\u0642\u062f \u0627\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639\u0627 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062b\u0629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0628\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643, \u0646\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 Cox Ingersoll Ross \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0642\u062f\u0645\u0647\u0627 Dan Voicelescu \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0627\u0645 1985 \u0648\u062a\u0633\u0645\u0649.Free Cox Ingersoll Ross (Free CIR)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a CIR \u0648 Free CIR \u062a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0638\u0645 Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) \u0648\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 Metropolis- Hasting \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0639\u062f \u0623\u062d\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0627\u0626\u0639\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). \u0646\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0641\u064a (ISX60) , \u0648\u0642\u062f \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0631\u0645\u062c\u0629R , \u0648\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0632 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0647\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u0631\u0649.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" data-id=\"51171\" src=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/A65BA815-7F42-4BFA-80FB-E3E780BBABE2-1024x682.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51171\" srcset=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/A65BA815-7F42-4BFA-80FB-E3E780BBABE2-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/A65BA815-7F42-4BFA-80FB-E3E780BBABE2-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/A65BA815-7F42-4BFA-80FB-E3E780BBABE2-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/A65BA815-7F42-4BFA-80FB-E3E780BBABE2.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" data-id=\"51170\" src=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/291D6067-F3A3-41B7-8E79-34116D22EF6F-1024x682.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51170\" srcset=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/291D6067-F3A3-41B7-8E79-34116D22EF6F-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/291D6067-F3A3-41B7-8E79-34116D22EF6F-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/291D6067-F3A3-41B7-8E79-34116D22EF6F-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/291D6067-F3A3-41B7-8E79-34116D22EF6F.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" data-id=\"51173\" src=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/9A3C1947-88B4-427A-9F4E-5AB476B77D9A-1024x682.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51173\" srcset=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/9A3C1947-88B4-427A-9F4E-5AB476B77D9A-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/9A3C1947-88B4-427A-9F4E-5AB476B77D9A-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/9A3C1947-88B4-427A-9F4E-5AB476B77D9A-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/9A3C1947-88B4-427A-9F4E-5AB476B77D9A.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" data-id=\"51174\" src=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/F31DFE99-5167-4022-A8AA-49AF86ED87FD-1024x682.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51174\" srcset=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/F31DFE99-5167-4022-A8AA-49AF86ED87FD-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/F31DFE99-5167-4022-A8AA-49AF86ED87FD-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/F31DFE99-5167-4022-A8AA-49AF86ED87FD-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/F31DFE99-5167-4022-A8AA-49AF86ED87FD.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" data-id=\"51169\" src=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/059A58BC-6033-4E8D-9EF0-D05FC456E4AE-1024x682.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51169\" srcset=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/059A58BC-6033-4E8D-9EF0-D05FC456E4AE-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/059A58BC-6033-4E8D-9EF0-D05FC456E4AE-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/059A58BC-6033-4E8D-9EF0-D05FC456E4AE-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/059A58BC-6033-4E8D-9EF0-D05FC456E4AE.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" data-id=\"51172\" src=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/EC952FA9-4D4E-459F-8AAA-FA53E6B32506-1024x682.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51172\" srcset=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/EC952FA9-4D4E-459F-8AAA-FA53E6B32506-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/EC952FA9-4D4E-459F-8AAA-FA53E6B32506-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/EC952FA9-4D4E-459F-8AAA-FA53E6B32506-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/EC952FA9-4D4E-459F-8AAA-FA53E6B32506.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" data-id=\"51176\" src=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/BF1E27BC-E556-4D55-BED4-295C8A3E0A3B-1024x682.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51176\" srcset=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/BF1E27BC-E556-4D55-BED4-295C8A3E0A3B-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/BF1E27BC-E556-4D55-BED4-295C8A3E0A3B-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/BF1E27BC-E556-4D55-BED4-295C8A3E0A3B-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/BF1E27BC-E556-4D55-BED4-295C8A3E0A3B.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" data-id=\"51175\" src=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0F06C9D8-22A4-4C10-9FA2-99611F2ACD50-1024x682.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51175\" srcset=\"https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0F06C9D8-22A4-4C10-9FA2-99611F2ACD50-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0F06C9D8-22A4-4C10-9FA2-99611F2ACD50-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0F06C9D8-22A4-4C10-9FA2-99611F2ACD50-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/qu.edu.iq\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/0F06C9D8-22A4-4C10-9FA2-99611F2ACD50.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" 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