Measuring and analyzing the impact of oil shocks on the
gross domestic product in Iraq For the period(1970-2020)
Prof. Dr. Nabil Mahdi Al-Janabi1
Researcher: Ghada Saleh Abboud2
1- professor of Economics in the Department Of Economics \ University of Al-Qadisiyah
2- Master’s student Department Of Economics \ University of Al-Qadisiyah
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Corresponding Author: Ghada Saleh Abboud Email address : Eco.post28@qu.edu.iq
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Abstract:
The research aims to measure and analyze the impact of oil shocks on the GDP of the second largest oil
economy in OPEC, in the short and long terms. The period (1970-2020)covered all the positive and
negative oil shocks to which the global economy was exposed. And by describing a standard model of
the oil shock and measuring its impact on IRAQI GDP, using the methodology of boundary testing and
the ARDEL model, after testing the time-series free from the unit root, as well as analyzing the oil
shocks through the Impulse Responsible Function. The results contradict the hypothesis of the
existence of a positive relationship to oil shocks on the gross domestic product and the explanation for
the fact that the impact of negative shocks is greater than positive shocks, as well as wars, international
sanctions, and internal shocks that the economy was exposed to during the research period.
Key words: oil shocks, gross domestic product, limits test, impulse response function.
